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UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar lead GCC banking stability in 2025, says S&P Global

S&P Global identifies strong capital buffers and supportive government policies as key drivers backing the GCC's banking sector boom in 2025. 

UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar lead GCC banking stability in 2025, says S&P Global
[Source photo: Chetan Jha/Fast Company Middle East ]

A recent analysis by S&P Global identified the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar as stable economies poised to support the region’s dynamic banking sector in 2025. The report attributed this optimistic outlook to strong capital buffers, favorable economic conditions, and supportive government policies, positioning these GCC countries as key players in regional financial stability.

Kuwait’s resilient economy, bolstered by lower interest rates and diversified asset classes, takes center stage in the country’s growth narrative. According to the S&P Global report, the Kuwaiti banking sector is a critical stabilizer against market fluctuations driven by regional geopolitical tensions. Despite the potential profitability challenges of lower interest rates, stable lending growth rates in Kuwait are well-positioned to offset these effects. These findings align with Kuwait’s favorable Fitch Ratings from November 2024, which reaffirmed the nation’s economic stability and robust financial outlook.

Puneet Tuli, S&P Global Ratings credit analyst, said, “After an estimated 2.3% contraction in 2024, we expect Kuwait’s GDP growth will rebound to 3% in 2025 as OPEC+ oil production restrictions are gradually eased, and project implementation and reform momentum improves.” The report spotlighted Kuwait’s robust capital buffers, which allow national banks to retain as high as 50% of profits, thus prioritizing capitalization.

According to Tuli, these policy efforts are often supplemented by “private sector deposits from corporations and households, which dominate Kuwaiti banks’ funding base. ”

Qatar’s economic growth has followed a trajectory similar to that of its GCC neighbors. The country’s economy benefits from abundant liquidity, supporting expansion in emerging non-oil sectors. Liquefied natural gas production, which influences Qatar’s developing non-hydrocarbon economy, is expected to drive credit growth in the coming years.

Juili Pargaonkar, S&P Global Ratings credit analyst, remarked that “geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are high, but we currently do not expect a full-scale regional conflict, and we anticipate macroeconomic conditions in Qatar will remain broadly stable.”

S&P Global predicts improved asset quality metrics and reduced credit losses in the UAE by 2025. The analysis also highlights a significant deposit increase over the past three years, which is expected to support the UAE’s economic momentum in 2025.

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