The UAE’s growing alignment with the US  is a calculated move to anchor itself at the core of global influence. More than any other Gulf nation, it views strategic investment as central for strengthening bilateral ties and securing long-term returns. Its pledge to channel trillions into the US economy reflects a calculated effort to secure enduring partnerships and future-ready growth.

As the US sharpens its focus on next-generation industries—artificial intelligence, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing—the UAE is moving in parallel, aligning itself with these emerging sectors. The strategy is as much about economic resilience as it is about future relevance.

By committing to invest $1.4 trillion in the US over the next ten years, the UAE is boldly stating its confidence in the US market.

So, what does this ambitious partnership signal about the UAE’s global ambitions, and what does it stand to gain?

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC POSITION 

“The US remains the largest and most liquid capital market, a hub of innovation, and the UAE has ample capital to deploy,” says Rachel Ziemba, Founder of Ziemba Insights. “Some of that capital will be directed toward the US, while other portions will find their way to different regions.” While Ziemba doesn’t expect the full $1.4 trillion investment to materialize, she underscores that the scale of these investments will be significant.

The UAE is also signaling its intent to partner more closely with the US, particularly in sectors like high-tech chips. To achieve this, the UAE may need to develop a domestic ecosystem that deliberately avoids reliance on Chinese technology.

Ziemba notes, “Balancing between the US and China will be challenging for the UAE.” While the pact marks an intention to invest, realizing this goal hinges on US policies that make such investments attractive, specifically, whether tariff uncertainties are alleviated and if efforts to expedite national security reviews, like CFIUS, are streamlined.

Hasnain Malik, Managing Director of Emerging and Frontier Markets Equity Strategy at Tellimer, draws attention to the scale of the commitment. He notes that $1.4 trillion over ten years represents 70% of the UAE’s existing sovereign wealth funds and, annually, amounts to 25% of GDP and three times the current account surplus, based on IMF estimates for 2025.

This investment strategy isn’t limited to cutting-edge fields like AI. Capital flows into data centers, related energy infrastructure, and critical minerals. However, there’s also substantial interest in more traditional industrial sectors, including aluminum production and liquefied natural gas export facilities.

Malik calls this alignment the “Mar-a-Lago Accord”—a strategy where countries secure US defense ties, tech access, and market entry by converting investments into long-term US assets, potentially including currency moves to boost US manufacturing competitiveness.

 Malik adds that the UAE’s investment pledge is perhaps the most significant example of the Mar-a-Lago Accord.

The US has long been an attractive investment destination for the Emiratis, according to Dr. Robert Mogielnicki, Senior Resident Scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute. He points to the strong historical investment ties as a solid foundation for further engagement.

He adds, “That said, the Emiratis will be thinking about how they translate more political pressure from Washington concerning US-focused investments into deals that are ultimately beneficial for Emirati stakeholders and the UAE economy.”

STRATEGIC SHIFT IN UAE INVESTMENTS

The UAE’s investments in the US are particularly focused on three critical sectors: technology, energy, and infrastructure. Ziemba states, “It is also trying to strike purchase agreements on chips and key topics.”

Discussing whether this agreement could reshape the UAE’s outbound capital strategy,  prioritizing direct equity investments, venture capital, or infrastructure projects, Ziemba emphasizes that it won’t drastically alter the approach but will instead “reflect them.” She anticipates a mix of investment styles, depending on the commercial terms, noting, “Right now, direct equity investments are somewhat pricey. The UAE has been prioritizing energy investments, mostly in gas.” However, this will ultimately depend on the attractiveness of the commercial terms.

The UAE will also continue its investment efforts in Europe and seek to increase engagement in emerging economies. According to Mogielnicki, sectors such as defense, energy, AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and manufacturing will likely benefit from increased UAE investments. Other industries may also see a share of the influx.

From a UAE investment perspective, sectors in the US that stand to benefit the most include energy, particularly fossil fuels and downstream chemical production activities, given the US government’s interest. Food processing may also attract investment, while technology holds potential, although this would depend on factors such as CFIUS regulations and national security considerations.

Moreover, the deal could pave the way for co-investment structures between the UAE and US institutions. However, Ziemba notes that this largely depends on how the US establishes its national investment funds. There is already significant UAE investment in the US, particularly private equity. While cross-listed funds appear unlikely, some UAE entities may opt to list in the US.

THE MIDDLE EAST’S ROLE IN GLOBAL TRADE

In the long term, such a substantial investment in the US could shift focus away from other regions, introducing concentration risk, particularly within the UAE’s excess sovereign wealth funds, according to Malik. This creates the possibility of the UAE being exposed to risks if future US administrations decide to retract the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” that supports this investment.

However, this influx of capital is likely to further elevate the Middle East’s position as a leading source of global investment, notes Ziemba. “GCC funds, particularly those from Abu Dhabi, are already major contributors, and continued investments of this nature will reinforce the region’s growing influence in global trade and finance,” she adds.

Mogielnicki says the deal will strengthen the UAE’s economic resilience and global influence over the next decade, primarily bolstering its diversified investment strategy. 

“The UAE is not solely focused on the US economy. It actively invests across developed and emerging markets and channels capital into high-priority domestic sectors.”

The US, therefore, is an integral part of a broader, multifaceted investment approach.