As artificial intelligence continues to redefine economic growth and societal operation, the UAE is introducing an alternative framework for defining national progress, one that focuses on collective intellectual capacity rather than economic output.

During the opening of the 2025 Dubai Future Forum at the Museum of the Future, H.E. Khalfan Belhoul, CEO of the Dubai Future Foundation, presented this new concept: the National Cognitive Potential. This framework proposes that a nation’s competitive standing is primarily determined by its focused creativity, the depth of its institutional collaboration, and its proficiency in analyzing complex data and systems.

In Belhoul’s vision, the primary distinction among future nations will not rest on infrastructure or spending on innovation, but rather on the mental resilience and interconnected thinking of their citizens. This includes the collective ability to sustain attention, process complexity, and co-create solutions in a rapidly evolving global environment.

“What is the nation’s most valuable asset but the focused and interconnected minds of its people? What if that is the country’s true value and competitive advantage in the future?” he asked. This question frames the concept as a mechanism for re-evaluating value in the age of intelligent machines.

The proposed metric is designed to reframe national progress by assessing the quality of a society’s networks, the strength of its internal relationships, and its capacity for focused creativity. As Belhoul concluded, “Ultimately, this will be a new way to understand value in an AI age, a new way to be competitive.”

The foundation’s current perspective is informed by the preceding year’s effort to track and validate its prior forecasts. While certain predictions materialized—such as solar energy becoming Europe’s primary power source—others remain unrealized or are still in progress, including human lunar travel and the complete integration of AI into Fortune 500 boardrooms.

“Tracking what happens is important, but it isn’t enough,” Belhoul stated. “Real insight comes from listening as we track and noticing the deeper shifts hidden beneath the obvious signals.”

These foundational shifts, Belhoul argued, are already taking shape and are expected to define the next decade. Consequently, instead of issuing seven specific predictions, as in previous iterations of the forum, the foundation elected to highlight three overarching transformational shifts this year.

FOCUS AS THE NEW CURRENCY

Belhoul said, “How focused are you right now? Our ability to concentrate has dropped sharply over the past two decades. Uninterrupted focus fell from 2.5 minutes in 2004 to 47 seconds in 2023 — and that was before generative AI.” He explained how focus is not just reviewed based on productivity, but it’s about thinking deeply and creating what matters.

Belhoul warned that although AI can process vast data instantly, humans are “becoming less informed.” He stated: “The future expert is not the one who can access the most information, but the one who can extract the most meaning from it.”

He added: “Everyone and no one is an expert.” With AI capable of parsing complex datasets and generating summaries in seconds, the abundance of information has created a false sense of understanding. People may feel informed simply because they have access to information, yet they often lack the depth or context needed to make sound judgments.

AI AND HUMAN CONNECTION

As artificial intelligence begins to cater to emotional needs, Belhoul reflected: “AI companions are emerging as emotional safety nets. This market is projected to double by 2032. They listen without judgment or ego. They never leave the chat.”

This signifies that AI is redefining the very meaning of a best friend.

According to Belhoul, these three shifts represent “a deeper tipping point where technology, especially AI, isn’t just changing systems. It is amplifying profound human challenges.”

The forum, hosted annually in Dubai, convenes global thinkers, policymakers, and innovators to debate and co-design the future. Belhoul concluded his remarks by reflecting on last year’s closing question: “What will you change by the time I see you again?”, a prompt that highlighted the tangible results participants had achieved over the following twelve months.