Air cargo spot rates are climbing sharply as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global supply chains, creating volatility across key trade corridors.

According to WorldACD Market Data, the market has shown signs of partial recovery in recent weeks, but conditions remain highly unstable following military escalation involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The resulting disruptions have placed significant strain on carriers, airports, and logistics operators across the region.

Data indicates that while air cargo capacity saw a week-on-week increase of 35%, tonnages from Gulf countries rebounded by 74% after a steep 65% drop the previous week. However, volumes remain approximately 50% below pre-conflict levels recorded in mid-February.

South Asia markets, traditionally reliant on Gulf carriers, also experienced a partial recovery, with volumes rising 24% week-on-week. Despite this, they remain 20% below pre-war benchmarks. Spot rates from the region have surged, climbing 24% to $3.54 per kilo in a single week, marking an increase of over 60% within two weeks.

Trade lanes between the Middle East, South Asia, and Europe reflected similar trends. Volumes rose 27% week-on-week but are still down 20% compared to pre-conflict levels and 9% lower year-on-year.

Dubai, a critical logistics hub, recorded a 67% rebound in cargo volumes following a 39% drop the week prior. Even so, volumes remain 30% below pre-war levels, highlighting the ongoing fragility of the market.

Meanwhile, spot rates from Gulf countries rose a further 22% week-on-week to $3.77 per kilo, approximately 56% higher than pre-conflict levels, as constrained capacity and rerouting pressures continue to push prices upward.

Globally, air cargo rates increased 10% week-on-week to $2.67 per kilo in mid-March, following an 8% rise the previous week. The surge reflects a combination of constrained capacity, rerouted flights, backlog-driven demand, and rising jet fuel costs.

Worldwide cargo volumes edged up 4% week-on-week, supported by post-Lunar New Year recovery in Asia Pacific and returning volumes from the Middle East and South Asia. However, global tonnages remain down 7% year-on-year, underscoring the broader market slowdown.

Spot rates globally climbed 12% to $3.19 per kilo; 22% higher than the same period last year, with the most significant increases originating from the Middle East and South Asia, where rates jumped to $4.37 per kilo, up 58% year-on-year.

While some recovery has been supported by the reopening of select airspace and alternative flight routes, capacity across the region remains constrained. Ongoing uncertainty continues to pose risks of further disruptions, delays, and backlogs across global air cargo networks.