The global hydrogen economy is approaching a new inflection point in 2026, shaped by evolving market dynamics, policy shifts, and ongoing execution challenges.

As of February 2026, active low-carbon hydrogen capacity reached approximately 2.2 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), supported by more than 460 operational projects, up from 104 in 2020.

Despite this expansion, growth in low-carbon hydrogen capacity remains constrained by uncertain demand and limited investment, according to GlobalData.

In its Strategic Intelligence report, Hydrogen in Oil and Gas, GlobalData estimates that global hydrogen production capacity could reach 82.3 mtpa by 2030, based on projects currently under development.

However, only around 2% of this capacity is operational today, while 26% is in advanced development and is more likely to be completed before 2030. The majority, approximately 57%, remains in early feasibility phases.

Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, noted that while the number of low-carbon hydrogen projects has increased significantly, capacity additions remain below the levels required to meet near-term targets outlined in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions scenario.

The project pipeline also remains limited in scale. Of the 2,335 projects globally, only ten exceed 1 mtpa, and just a few surpass 0.5 mtpa. Nine of these focus on green hydrogen, while one is dedicated to blue hydrogen.

While green hydrogen dominates in terms of project numbers, its overall capacity remains modest, limiting its ability to displace established energy sources. Developers continue to face challenges related to infrastructure, offtake agreements, and financial viability, which constrain hydrogen’s role in the energy mix.

BP leads in green hydrogen with nearly 3 mtpa of active and planned capacity, followed by TotalEnergies and industrial gas firms such as Air Liquide and Air Products. Shell and Equinor are expected to lead in blue hydrogen by 2030.

GlobalData expects capacity to accelerate as demand strengthens, supported by investment and policy. However, financial, regulatory, and infrastructure barriers remain key challenges to project delivery.