You didn’t just happen to see that sneaker ad, the skincare restock reminder, or the perfectly timed push notification nudging you toward a mall you were already near. It wasn’t a coincidence. It was all calculated.

Across the Middle East, retailers are shifting from reacting to predicting. Instead of waiting for customers to say what they want, they’re watching signals like clicks, scrolls, pauses, abandoned carts, payment habits, and even gym visits, and turning that data into something that feels surprisingly human: intuition.

It’s the difference between a store that says, “What are you looking for?” And one that says, “We had a feeling you’d need this.”

From loyalty programs and fitness memberships to unified payment platforms, AI is changing how brands anticipate desires, reduce friction, and build loyalty even before a purchase. But as retailers get smarter, the real question isn’t just how well they can predict behavior.

The real question is how far they should go. In the age of predictive commerce, the brands that succeed won’t just be the smartest—they’ll be the most trusted.

FROM REACTIVE TO PREDICTIVE

For decades, retail operated on hindsight. Sales reports informed restocking. Quarterly data shaped campaigns. Trends were identified only after they had already peaked.

That is changing now.

“Traditionally, retail has operated in a reactive mode, using historical sales data to adjust assortments and promotions after trends have already emerged,” says Harshdeep Jolly, Executive Director – Technology and AI Strategy at Al-Futtaim. 

He adds: “AI has fundamentally changed that rhythm by allowing retailers to work with leading indicators: browsing patterns, micro-conversions, sentiment signals, and in-store behavioral cues like dwell time or abandoned baskets.”

Leading indicators include browsing patterns, micro-conversions, dwell time, abandoned baskets, and sentiment signals. These digital clues reveal intent before a purchase happens.

In the GCC, intent is rarely formed alone. Antoine Challita, UAE Country Head for Snap Inc., calls this change “contextual intent.”

“The industry is moving away from a reliance on trailing indicators that tell us what happened yesterday and toward what I call contextual intent. In the GCC, intent isn’t always a solo activity; it’s often a communal one. According to our recent research with the Business of Fashion, community is the primary currency here.”

He also notes that on Snapchat, intent often forms before any search begins. “When friends use augmented reality to try on the same sneaker in a group chat, they’re not just interacting with a brand—they’re building shared confidence. Our data shows that 77 percent of Snapchatters in the Gulf actively share products or recommend brands to their close friends.”

Instead of asking what sold yesterday, retailers can now ask what customers are likely to need tomorrow.

This predictive layer affects much more than marketing. Forecasting models predict demand spikes by category, location, and channel, helping align inventory, logistics, and staffing. The result is a retail operation that’s both more responsive and more efficient.

Retail is moving from reaction to anticipation — and that changes everything.

UNIFIED DATA AS THE FOUNDATION

For many retailers, predictive AI is only as good as the systems behind it. Fragmented systems limit visibility, while connected ecosystems unlock insights.

Daumantas Grigaravicius, Head of Middle East at Adyen, says that unified commerce is now non-negotiable. “AI is only as good as the data feeding it. That’s why unified commerce has become essential for retailers serious about understanding their customers,” he says.

Grigaravicius adds: “When payment data, online activity and in-store interactions connect through a single platform, AI can identify patterns that translate into important insights around shopper behavior and preferences which retailers can use to personalise offers, anticipate demand and refine inventory.”

Payment data, once viewed as purely transactional, is becoming behavioral gold. It reveals frequency, category preference, basket size, and even cross-border spending habits. When layered with browsing and loyalty data, it provides a granular view of intent.

Challita argues that this inner-circle behavior adds another layer of predictive power. “For retailers, this inner circle activity is a predictive goldmine. It allows them to understand not just what a person might buy, but the cultural context and peer validation that will drive that final transaction, 70 percent of which are now digitally influenced in this region.”

The urgency grows as consumer expectations change. “Our research showed that 70 percent of UAE consumers in 2025 used AI to shop, a 44 percent increase from 2024. This is pushing demand for smarter, faster, and smoother experiences,” says Grigaravicius.

Retailers that cannot connect systems seamlessly, he adds, risk irrelevance in the next phase of commerce.

FROM TRANSACTIONS TO LONG-TERM RELATIONSHIPS

The impact of predictive analytics extends well beyond product recommendations. It is reshaping retention strategies and operational planning.

For instance, at Fitness First Middle East, data is not just about sales performance—it is about behavior and consistency.

“At Fitness First, we view data as a way to better understand behaviour, not just measure performance. Predictive analytics allows us to identify patterns in how members train, when they visit, which services they use, and how their routines evolve over time,” says Jason Tubbs, Senior Vice President of Fitness First Middle East.

That insight enables proactive intervention. “By analyzing engagement trends, we can identify members who may be at risk of disengaging and proactively step in with support, whether that’s coaching, programme adjustments, or personalized outreach. That foresight helps us strengthen long-term relationships and support members in staying consistent with their fitness journey.”

Retention, not just short-term acquisition, becomes the main KPI. Tubbs is clear about ROI: “It’s a mix of all three, but if we had to pick one, it would be retention and long-term relationships.”

In an era of rising customer acquisition costs and macroeconomic pressure, that long-view approach offers resilience.

THE RISE OF ‘PHYGITAL’ EXPERIENCES

The Middle East’s retail landscape is unique: physical retail remains vibrant even as e-commerce grows rapidly. Predictive AI is increasingly bridging these worlds.

Jolly describes the evolution of physical retail into adaptive environments. “Physical retail in the Middle East is already evolving into a more adaptive, intelligent environment, and this trend will accelerate, moving from static store formats to spaces that respond dynamically to real-time patterns in traffic, conversion, and customer profiles.”

The future store, in this framing, is “a living space”—where frontline staff are empowered by real-time insight and digital assets integrate seamlessly with in-store engagement.

He explains that over time, smart retail spaces will become more dynamic and alive, with frontline staff supported by deep data insights that help create smoother, more personalized customer interactions.

“Predictive AI is finally helping us retire the outdated online vs. offline debate,” says Challita. “In this region, the journey is a seamless loop. AI’s real value lies in predictive readiness, understanding where someone is in their journey so a brand can show up with the right context and tone, not just a call to action.”

These insights can help teams create moments that surprise and delight shoppers while enabling employees to make more informed decisions that directly influence commercial performance in an AI-driven, augmented intelligence environment. 

“Moreover, with a combination of AI and digital technologies, physical retail spaces can seamlessly work with digital assets to deliver a true ‘Phygital journey’ for customers. What has been a theoretical concept for many retailers can now practically come to life for a win-win for both customers and retailers,” Jolly says.

Similarly, Grigaravicius points to the next step: agentic commerce. “Looking further ahead, agentic commerce will transform expectations again – AI agents will shop autonomously, handling research and purchases without human intervention. Retailers with fragmented systems won’t even be considered.”

The implication is clear: infrastructure decisions made today determine relevance tomorrow.

NAVIGATING VALUE IN A PRICE-SENSITIVE MARKET

As inflationary pressures and shifting spending patterns reshape consumer behavior, predictive analytics also plays a defensive role.

Tubbs notes that how people see value is changing. “Today’s consumers want more than just a good price—they care about results and experience.”

Data also informs investment decisions. “Data gives us clarity and agility. It helps us understand which services are driving the most engagement, where demand is growing, and how to allocate resources more efficiently.”

This operational intelligence—forecasting demand spikes, optimizing staffing, and refining class schedules—enhances efficiency and relevance.

PRIVACY, TRUST, AND RESPONSIBLE AI

As personalization becomes more sophisticated, the trust equation becomes more fragile or shaky.

Jolly views this through a governance lens. “As data and AI use becomes more sophisticated, the most important design principle is trust by design – not as an afterthought.”

Al-Futtaim anchors this in three pillars: consent and transparency, data minimisation, and responsible AI. Customers must understand what data is collected and why—and have meaningful control over preferences.

Tubbs echoes a similar sentiment in the fitness context. “Trust is fundamental in fitness and wellness. Members share personal goals and information with us, so we take that responsibility seriously.”

He adds, “It’s about helpful personalisation, not intrusive marketing, and always operating with transparency and consent.”

The balance is delicate. Personalization should feel supportive, not like surveillance. In markets where culture and regulations differ, good governance becomes a key advantage.

Challita cautions that the risk emerges when personalization crosses that line. “There is a fine line between being helpful and being intrusive. The risk arises when personalization feels like ‘surveillance’ rather than ‘service.’ At Snap, we’ve found that trust is protected when the value exchange is transparent and the user remains in the driver’s seat.”

He advocates for permission-based discovery. “Instead of ‘following’ users across the web, brands should focus on experiences people actively choose to engage with, like a creator’s honest review or an AR lens that solves a problem.”

He also highlights a cultural gap. “While 73% of luxury consumers want brands to reflect their society, less than 15% feel truly represented in current advertising.”

THE NEXT PHASE OF RETAIL 

Looking ahead, predictive intelligence is expected to move deeper into core operations.

Jolly expects AI-native platforms that allow real-time testing and personalization at scale. Retailers will use more predictive and autonomous tools for demand forecasting, inventory management, pricing, and workforce planning.

Tubbs sees similar potential within experience-led sectors. “Ultimately, if technology helps us deliver more personalised, consistent and meaningful fitness journeys that keep people coming back year after year, that’s the strongest return on investment we can achieve.”

For Grigaravicius, the practical step is foundational: “The practical step today is building connected infrastructure that serves current customers while preparing for autonomous ones. That’s how brands can turn data into a strategic asset.”

For Challita, loyalty in the GCC has always been relational. “In the GCC, loyalty has always been built on the strength of relationships. Historically, that role was played by a shopkeeper who knew your family and your preferences.”

He argues predictive AI can scale that familiarity. “Predictive AI allows us to scale that ‘human touch’ for the digital age by shifting from transactional rewards to Predictive Usefulness.”

In a region where 78% of luxury shoppers are influenced by their inner circle, he adds, “the most powerful form of loyalty is when a brand becomes a trusted member of that circle.”

In the Middle East, where digital adoption is high and physical retail remains experiential, the convergence of AI, payments, and behavioral data may define the region’s next competitive edge.

The retailers that succeed won’t just collect more data. They’ll turn it into intuition, predicting needs before customers express them, creating journeys that feel seamless rather than fragmented, and building trust at every step.

In the age of predictive retail, the most powerful insight isn’t what customers bought yesterday. It’s what they’re likely to value tomorrow, and how much they trust brands to understand that.