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GCC trade set to hit $2.3 trillion by 2033 with 5.5% annual growth, claims report
Shifting trade routes present the GCC with a unique opportunity to shape global commerce.
Trade within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is poised for significant expansion, with projections indicating a 5.5% annual growth rate, reaching a total value of $2.3 trillion by 2033, according to a new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
BCG’s report titled “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade” highlights the GCC’s strategic positioning as a key player in the reshaping of global commerce.
Beyond its traditional reliance on hydrocarbons, the region’s non-hydrocarbon trade is expected to grow by 3.5% annually, demonstrating the success of diversification initiatives. This growth outpaces the projected global trade expansion of 2.9% annually through 2033.
“As trade routes evolve, the region is not merely a geographic intermediary but a central orchestrator of emerging trade patterns,” said Rami Rafih, managing director and partner at BCG. “The GCC’s proactive investment in trade capabilities positions it to shape the future of global commerce.”
China is the largest growth market for GCC trade, with volumes set to rise by $88 billion (5.7% CAGR), followed by Japan at $46 billion (9.4% CAGR). The report highlights the GCC’s role as a strategic bridge between East and West. With China-Global South trade projected to grow by $1.25 trillion and intra-Global South trade by $673 billion by 2033, the GCC is well-positioned to capture a substantial share of this growth.
Factors such as regulatory enhancements, infrastructure development, and strategic agreements further fuel the GCC’s non-oil trade.
The report highlights global trade shifts, with North America’s resilience strengthening and ASEAN and India emerging as key players. As the Global South’s influence grows, trade among developing nations is set to expand. BCG advises GCC leaders to build supply chain resilience, expand into high-growth markets like India and China, and invest in nearshoring.
“Success will depend on cultivating deep market intelligence, robust scenario planning, and strategic partnerships,” said Cristian Rodriguez-Chiffelle, partner and director for trade and investment at BCG. The GCC’s ability to effectively leverage these evolving dynamics will be crucial for its long-term economic strength and global influence.
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