The skies over the Middle East are poised for a dramatic expansion, with the region’s commercial airline fleet projected to grow at a staggering 5.1% annually from 2025 to 2035, significantly exceeding the global average of 2.8%, according to a new report by consulting firm Oliver Wyman.  

This surge will see the Middle East’s fleet balloon to 2,557 aircraft, driven by a voracious appetite for short-haul flights. Consequently, the region’s share of the global commercial fleet will climb from 5.3% in 2025 to a robust 6.7% by 2035.  

The rapid fleet expansion will also fuel a boom in maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) spending, projected to rise from $16 billion in 2025 to $20 billion in 2035. This growth underscores the region’s ambitious push to solidify its aviation sector, a key component of broader economic diversification efforts, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where tourism targets are soaring.

““The Middle East commercial aviation market is on a growth trajectory, supported by strong demand for air travel,” ” said Andre Martins, head of transportation, services, and operations practices for India, the Middle East, and Africa at Oliver Wyman. He emphasized that the expansion will be largely driven by narrow-body aircraft, catering to the burgeoning demand for domestic and regional flights.  

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are at the forefront of this aviation boom, collectively accounting for 60% of the region’s market. Saudi Arabia leads in domestic travel, making up 45% of total seats, while the UAE remains a hub for international traffic.

Narrow-body aircraft, known for their fuel efficiency, will dominate the Middle East’s expansion, increasing by 75.25% by 2035. Wide-body aircraft will also see significant growth, rising by 63.17%.  

Globally, the report forecasts the commercial fleet to exceed 38,300 aircraft by 2035, with production challenges leading to delayed retirements and an aging fleet.

Emerging markets like China, India, and the Middle East are set to capture a larger slice of the global aviation pie, signaling a shift in industry power dynamics. Aircraft production is expected to steadily increase, reaching over 2,400 units by 2035.