The World Bank has revised its economic outlook for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, reflecting a brighter future but a slightly slower present. 

In its Spring 2024 Gulf Economic Update (GEU), the bank predicts regional growth to reach 4.7% in 2025, a significant upward adjustment from the previous projection of 3.8%.

However, this year’s growth is expected to fall slightly short of earlier estimates. While the initial forecast predicted a 3.6% expansion, the revised figure is 2.8%.

Despite this adjustment, the report maintains a positive outlook. The anticipated rebound in oil output, coupled with the continued strength of the non-oil economy, is fueling optimism for the region’s future.

The report highlights that OPEC+ member states are expected to gradually ease production quotas in the latter half of 2024. This, alongside the robust momentum in the non-oil sector, is poised to drive long-term growth.

Regarding fiscal health, the report forecasts a narrowing of the regional fiscal surplus to 0.1% of GDP this year. The current account surplus is also expected to decrease, settling at 7.5% of GDP compared to 8.4% in 2022.

The revised forecast aligns with the World Bank’s earlier predictions for individual countries. The UAE remains on track for a 3.9% growth in 2024, while Saudi Arabia is projected to see a 2.5% expansion this year, followed by a more significant 5.9% jump in 2025.