Saudi Arabia is midway through Vision 2030, as it builds big infrastructure projects to develop sectors such as tourism and industry and expand the private sector to boost its non-oil economy.
Despite extended, voluntary oil production cuts by the country of 1 million barrels per day for much of last year, this year, total expenditure is projected at $334 billion, according to the finance ministry, about 12% higher than was budgeted for 2023.
In consequence, a GDP growth of 4.4% in 2024 is projected this year by Aljazira Capital, which aligns with the Ministry of Finance’s projection, and Moody’s, which predicted a 4.6% increase for the Gulf state this year.
Aljazira Capital report highlighted that increasing consumer spending, a decreased unemployment rate, increased non-oil private sector activity, and control over inflation will pave the way for favorable economic conditions.
“Saudi Arabia’s GDP is expected to expand by 4.4% in 2024 on the back of growth in the private sector amid the implementation of programs under Saudi Vision 2030. Weak oil revenues would be offset by growth in non-oil revenues,” the report stated.
Additionally, interest rates are expected to provide liquidity for international investors, allowing for increased foreign direct investments (FDIs.) In turn, the Saudi stock market is expected to receive gains of around 10% in 2024, notes the report.
Both globally and locally, the report said that interest rates reaching their peak in advanced economies will coincide with a decline in inflation, resulting in a global economic slowdown, achieving a soft landing without entering a recession in 2024.
The report also envisions increased banking, retail, applications, technology, communication services, and tourism stocks.
According to the finance ministry, Saudi Public debt is forecast to reach $294.09 billion, or 25.9% of GDP in 2024. In October, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said that the government was aware of its fiscal space and not worried by deficits, focusing instead on accelerating reforms.
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