• | 8:00 am

How to stop assuming the worst in a state of uncertainty

Uncertainty can cause you to panic—or freeze. Here’s how to train your brain to change that mindset.

How to stop assuming the worst in a state of uncertainty
[Source photo: Anna Shvets/Pexels]

Not knowing what’s going to happen when we’re watching a movie can be thrilling. Edge-of-your-seat excitement is fun entertainment, and we pan films with predictable endings. When the uncertainty is in our own life, however, the experience is less enthralling. In fact, it can be downright negative.

That’s because not being able to see the future causes us to be emotionally and intellectually uncomfortable, says Rebecca Homkes, author of Survive, Reset, Thrive: Leading Breakthrough Growth Strategy in Volatile Times. “These things lead us to frame uncertainty as something that we need to protect, overcome, or get through,” she says. “It’s evolutionary. In prehistorical times, we’re trained to see unknown things as a risk we need to overcome.”

Instead of assuming the worst, Homkes says it’s important to stop seeing uncertainty as inherently negative. Here are four steps for changing your mindset:

Reframe the Situation

The first step is a simple one: Reframe how you talk about uncertainty. It’s natural to think, “How will I overcome uncertainty?” or “How will I get through this uncertain period?” But language matters. A lot.

“We are always putting a word before the word ‘uncertainty’ that says this thing’s going to be bad,” says Homkes. “The definition of uncertainty is ‘a series of future events which may or may not occur.’ Whether or not those events are good or bad depends on what we’re trying to do and how we’re set up.”

Align on Your Beliefs

Next, identify your beliefs. Some of your beliefs could turn out to be wrong because no one can predict the future, but when you articulate them, you can start watching for and testing them. Homkes, who lectures on strategy at the London Business School and is an executive strategy coach and consultant, recommends identifying macro, industry, internal, and external beliefs around the uncertain topic.

“We often conflate all those into one belief, which means we’re really saying nothing,” she says.

For example, AI will disrupt many industries. Identify what is your belief on AI in your industry. How will it change the nature of competition? How will it change you from a productivity and efficiency standpoint? How will it change your clients’ behavior?

“The real power move is to say, ‘Almost everything that happens, regardless of how much uncertainty we’re facing, still falls within probability,’” says Homkes.

Identify Kickers and Killers

When you start asking what could happen, your brain will default to the negative. Instead, Homkes recommends asking two questions around uncertainty: What could make us? And what could break us?

“I call these kickers and killers,” she says. “Every team I work with, regardless of industry, size, and geography, can give me 30 killers in 20 minutes—things that could break them. I have to push and challenge to get a handful of the kickers. Humans are not great at identifying them.”

When you identify your killers, Homkes says you’ll start to realize most of your systems and processes will take care of them. When you name your kickers, you’ll start honing your strategy.

“You’ll open a new opportunity set with the ‘what could make us,’” she says. “Almost all [the kickers are things] you should probably just start doing now, regardless of this uncertainty. Every trend has a potential kicker and killer. Your job is to find them, explore them, and prioritize them.”

Practice what You Preach

The final step is a rinse-and-repeat of the first three. If you stay in the frame of mind where uncertainty is bad, you will be in a constant holding pattern, waiting to decide until you know more. For example, you may think it’s smart to wait to make any big decisions until after the election. Once that happens, you might want to wait until the first quarter of next year when the new president is in place. Then you might decide to wait until the cabinet is established so you know where regulation policy will go.

“Look at what just happened,” says Homkes. “You put off making a major decision for an entire calendar year.”

Fear of the uncertain can also prompt you into protection mode, where you’re focused on hoarding resources at the expense of growth opportunities. Uncertainty is one of the best times to learn and grow, says Homkes.

“High-performing, high-growth companies say, ‘Uncertainty means my customers are going to be super honest about what they value the most. My vendors are going to be super clear about what they need from me. My employees are going to be very honest about what a true employee value proposition is,’” she says. “The most damaging thing that happens when we see uncertainty is to stop learning.”

Homkes recommends constantly reminding yourself and your team that uncertainty is a series of future events that may or may not occur. “Use your time to figure out what you want to do and how to get set up,” she says. “Framing and constant repetition matters.”

  Be in the Know. Subscribe to our Newsletters.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

More

More Top Stories:

FROM OUR PARTNERS

Brands That Matter
Brands That Matter