Birthrates are plunging across the Middle East. Can technology reverse the trend?

The Arab world is having fewer babies. Far fewer. A region known for large families, youthful populations and some of the highest birth rates in the world is undergoing a demographic transformation. Families are shrinking. Parenthood is being delayed. And a region that once seemed far removed from the fertility crisis gripping Japan and South Korea is beginning to confront similar questions about its own future.

The numbers tell the story. A study tracking fertility rates across Arab countries between 2011 and 2021 found sharp declines in every country examined, with Jordan recording one of the steepest drops at 24.3%. In the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain, fertility rates during the period fell below 2.1 children per woman, below the UN’s replacement level needed to sustain a population without immigration. Even in Saudi Arabia, whose youthful population has long been heralded as an economic advantage – where 69% of the population is under 35–  has seen a decline in annual births of more than 10% between 2017 and 2022, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT). 

Demographers have been warning about the shift for years. In 2016, demographers described the Middle East as having experienced “the greatest fertility decline in the world over the past 30 years.” And while slower population growth is not inherently troubling, the pace of the decline is raising concerns among economists and policymakers. 

“Once smaller generations reach childbearing age, reversal becomes harder,” said Mouawiya Alawad, Director of the Institute for Social and Economic Research at Zayed University. 

His research on labor economics and migration across the Gulf suggests falling birthrates could leave the region with a significantly smaller workforce in two decades, putting greater pressure on productivity, innovation and attracting talent to sustain economic growth. “For [countries such as] the UAE, foreign recruitment can cushion this adjustment, but an aging population would still place greater demands on pensions, healthcare, and family care,” Alawad added.  

The UAE is seeking to reverse the trend by making family growth a national priority. President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan declared 2026 the Year of the Family, an initiative tied to the National Family Growth Agenda 2031. The effort includes a menu of measures to ease the pressures of raising children, strengthen family ties and promote values of unity. But beyond these incentives, technology is emerging as another part of the strategy. 

From AI-assisted fertility treatments to AI that boosts productivity, new advances are opening up possibilities for how societies navigate shifting family priorities and demographic change.

How AI is transforming fertility treatment 

Perhaps the greatest promise of technology lies not in encouraging larger families, but in helping couples have the children they already want. As more women delay motherhood, fertility challenges are becoming increasingly common. A new survey by ART Fertility and IVI Institut found that nearly one in six women in the UAE has experienced infertility, with 6% currently struggling to become pregnant.

Among IVF (vitro fertilization) care, one of AI’s most widely used applications is helping embryologists identify embryos most likely to lead to a successful pregnancy. A 2025 IVF-Worldwide survey found that embryo selection was among the most common areas of use among respondents who use AI in fertility care.

“Traditional embryo selection has relied on experienced embryologists assessing embryo appearance and development,” said Dr. Walid Reda Sayed, consultant reproductive endocrinologist and group medical director at Trust Fertility Clinic, part of Burjeel Holdings.

But such assessments can be subjective, with judgments varying between specialists, especially when grading an embryo. AI offers a more consistent approach by analyzing images and time-lapse footage to detect subtle patterns in embryo development, helping doctors make more informed decisions and enabling patients to understand more about what their chances of success will be..

“This may help reduce the need for invasive procedures,” he said, emphasizing that AI complements rather than replaces the expertise of embryologists.

Beyond embryo selection, clinics are also incorporating AI across ovarian stimulation, sperm assessment, genetic screening, and laboratory workflows, helping doctors make more personalized, data-driven treatment decisions.

IVF outcomes are already improving. Last month, Abu Dhabi’s Department of Health (DoH) reported that IVF success rates had reached 59%, placing the emirate among the highest globally. Building on that progress, the DoH launched a reproductive health program aimed at raising success rates to 80% by 2030. The initiative will connect a network of 250 clinics, drawing on AI, genomics, precision medicine and scientific research to improve fertility diagnosis and treatment.

While the target may be achievable, Sayed said it remains too early to determine how much AI alone can improve IVF success rates.

“The main limitation is that predicting success does not necessarily mean improving it,” he said. “AI cannot guarantee pregnancy, and its performance must be validated across different patient populations and clinics.”

Dr. Shahin Ghadir, a double board-certified obstetrician-gynecologist and reproductive endocrinology and infertility specialist based in Beverly Hills, whose clinic reports IVF success rates of 80% to 84%, said that the use of AI for fertility treatment may not be as transformative as AI in other areas of healthcare. 

“There are too many ‘unknowns’ in the world of fertility and about the human body, especially women undergoing fertility treatment,” he said. While AI can make better use of existing medical information, “there are some things we just don’t have information on,” limiting its ability to predict outcomes for every patient.

Ghadir sees significant potential for AI in monitoring egg development and assessing embryo quality, but believes its greatest value may lie in using patient data to identify fertility risks earlier and guide treatment decisions.

“AI will improve outcomes by using information such as your age, hormone levels and ultrasound findings, even at age 25, to help you understand what you need to do and when, so you don’t run into problems later on,” he said.

Where Physical AI can make a difference 

Even as AI improves fertility treatments, it cannot reverse the biological limits of having children later in life. That has opened up another possibility, where Physical AI can fill labor shortages amid aging populations. 

“Economic growth has always depended in part on both the number of workers and how much they can produce. If AI and robotics substantially increase productivity, countries may be able to maintain economic growth even with smaller workforces,” said Berkay Özcan, Professor of Social Research and Public Policy at NYU University. 

Japan has been the poster child of this shift. With 419 industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers across sectors including healthcare, manufacturing, and hospitality, it ranks among the world’s most automated economies.

Companies in the UAE are also beginning to explore robotics across a range of industries. Abu Dhabi-based K2 is testing applications in hospitality and food services. Meanwhile, Dubai-based airline Emirates plans to introduce AI-powered robots for passenger check-in and baggage handling in 2027.

Such advances could allow companies to expand without hiring more workers, streamlining supply chains and boosting productivity. In turn, economic growth could depend less on human labor and increasingly on a country’s technological capabilities.

“Technological capacity may become more important than workforce size in the future, but human capital will still remain central to economic competitiveness,” Özcan said.  “The countries that do best may not be those with the largest populations, but those that invest most effectively in their people and technologies,” Özcan added.

Why are families getting smaller?

Demographers know fertility is falling. What is less clear is why.

Rising living costs, later marriages and greater access to contraception have reshaped family planning across the Middle East. But as women pursue higher education and careers, shifting social expectations are also influencing decisions about parenthood.

“Many people have fewer children not because they are biologically unable to conceive, but because of difficulties finding a partner, employment conditions, family responsibilities or changing preferences,” said Berkay Özcan, professor of social research and public policy at NYU Abu Dhabi.

He points to a growing ” as highly educated women struggle to find equally educated, compatible partners. Expectations of parenthood are also changing.

Alawad’s research found that later first births were more aligned with women’s educational achievements rather than being associated with income, fame and status. 

“People may want children, but find it increasingly difficult to reconcile family life with education, work, and the standard of care they hope to provide,” he said.

The consequences could be far-reaching. The proportion of Emiratis aged 60 and older is projected to rise from roughly 6% in 2017 to 16% by 2050, increasing pressure on healthcare, pensions and long-term care.

Technology may help couples struggling to conceive, but it cannot remove the social and economic barriers shaping decisions about parenthood.