The next $2.4 trillion sustainability opportunity may lie outside green energy

Global investment in sustainable technologies has reached $17 trillion over the past decade, but capital continues to flow disproportionately toward a small group of sectors and technologies, according to Bain & Company.

The consultancy’s fourth edition of the Visionary CEO’s Guide to Sustainability found that sustainability investment hit a record $2.4 trillion in 2025. However, around 90% of that funding went to green energy, buildings, and mobility.

Agriculture, manufacturing and materials, and natural capital received less than 10% of total investment, despite collectively accounting for around 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The imbalance is also visible across individual technologies. Bain’s Green Technology Performance Index found that just three of the 37 sustainable technologies it tracks — solar, batteries, and electric vehicles — have outperformed forecasts made a decade ago. Twenty-nine technologies have fallen behind expectations.

“Ten years after the Paris Agreement, only three of the 37 technologies we track are ahead of where forecasts put them. Solar, batteries and EVs are scaling fast. Most of the rest are behind,” said Wissam Yassine, Partner and Middle East Sustainability practice leader at Bain & Company.

He added that businesses and investors should focus capital on areas where technology, policy, and consumer behavior are already aligned, while taking a longer-term view on technologies that have been slower to scale.

Consumer demand for more sustainable products is also strengthening. Bain found that 85% of 7,500 consumers surveyed across the US, UK, Italy, Brazil, and Indonesia are concerned about environmental sustainability, up from 79% a year earlier.

Around 83% said they had adopted at least three sustainable lifestyle habits, compared with 73% in 2023. Consumers are also willing to pay an average premium of 18% for sustainable products, rising to 24% when those products also offer health benefits.

Extreme weather remains the leading environmental concern among consumers.

The report also points to a growing disconnect between perceptions of artificial intelligence’s environmental footprint and its actual energy use.

Executives surveyed by Bain expect AI to account for around 11% of global energy consumption within three years, while consumers estimate the figure at 19%. Bain’s own modeling puts the figure considerably lower, at around 0.7%.

“AI’s sustainability impact is increasingly becoming part of the consumer conversation, but there is a significant gap between perception and reality,” Yassine said.

He added that consumer concerns are already shaping how people think about and use AI, creating pressure on companies to demonstrate its value while managing environmental and broader risks.

Bain also found a widening gap between companies in how they approach sustainable AI. Among companies classified as leading “shapers,” 90% view AI as a major opportunity to advance sustainability goals, compared with 41% among lagging businesses.

The report found that business and sustainability leaders also differ in how they assess investment priorities. Corporate executives tend to place greater emphasis on financial returns, while sustainability teams focus more heavily on regulatory compliance and risk management.

According to Bain, the strongest opportunities may lie in using AI to improve operational and energy efficiency, turn sustainability into a commercial advantage, and identify climate-related risks.

“The sustainable AI conversation needs to move beyond energy consumption to where AI can create tangible business and sustainability value,” Yassine said.

Bain said companies that can align technology, policy, and consumer behavior while strengthening resilience to climate risks will be better positioned to capture emerging opportunities in the sustainability transition.