Global tourism spending to hit $1.8 trillion as international arrivals reach record levels in 2026

The global travel industry is expected to reach record levels in 2026, with international arrivals projected to hit 1.57 billion and visitor spending forecast to reach $1.8 trillion, according to the 2026 WTM Global Travel Report released by WTM London in partnership with Tourism Economics.

International overnight arrivals are expected to increase by 2% compared with 2025, while spending by international visitors is projected to rise by 6%. Total visitor nights across domestic and international travel are forecast to reach 24.2 billion, with combined spending expected to grow 9% to $7.8 trillion.

However, international travel growth has slowed to 2% this year, compared with 6% in 2025, according to Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company. Geopolitical conflicts, higher jet fuel prices and rising living costs have weighed on demand, while domestic and short-haul travel have helped sustain the industry.

The Middle East has been among the hardest-hit regions, with international overnight arrivals falling 40% this year. However, arrivals are projected to rebound by 43% in 2027 if the conflict ends.

The conflict has also disrupted long-haul travel due to safety concerns, higher airfares and reduced flight capacity. Gulf aviation hubs accounted for 15% of global transit traffic in 2025.

Globally, inter-regional travel declined by 3%, while short-haul trips increased by the same rate. This shift contributed to arrivals growth in Africa (8%), Oceania (8%) and Europe (5%).

If hostilities ease, Asia and Oceania could record an 11% growth in arrivals in 2027. Asia has also faced weaker outbound demand from China, alongside the decline in long-haul travel.

North America is forecast to record just 2% growth in international arrivals in 2026, despite hosting the FIFA World Cup, with visitor numbers remaining 6% below 2019 levels.

Higher travel costs and negative traveller sentiment towards the United States have weighed on demand. Latin America also recorded 2% growth this year but is projected to expand by 7% in 2027, compared with 4% in North America.

Changing consumer spending patterns are reshaping travel demand, with growing interest in both luxury and value-oriented trips. According to the report, 56% of respondents would consider combining the two by saving on some aspects of a trip while spending more on others.

Value for money is also becoming an increasingly important factor in destination choices. One in six international travellers selected their most recent destination based on value in 2026, up from approximately one in 11 in 2025. Meanwhile, the share prioritising luxury remained steady at 12%.

Artificial intelligence is gaining traction in travel planning and bookings. The report found that 36% of respondents would trust AI to complete a travel booking, while 53% would consider using it for recommendations and 58% for searching and comparing prices. Tourism Economics said improving visibility across AI assistants is becoming a priority for destinations and travel providers.

Travel preferences are also shifting towards relaxation, local communities and nature. The share of respondents citing the need to disconnect and relax as their primary travel motivation rose to 37% in 2026, from 31% in 2025. Event-related travel also remains an important driver of demand.

Adventure travel presents another growth opportunity. While 64% of respondents expressed interest in adventure trips, only 19% typically undertake them. The report suggests improved packages and more family-friendly offerings could help convert interest into bookings.

Off-peak travel is also gaining popularity, offering potential economic and sustainability benefits for destinations. Around 22% of respondents said they now plan to travel at different times of the year, with lower costs a stronger motivation than cooler weather or avoiding crowds.

Looking ahead, international arrivals are projected to grow 8% in 2027 if disruptions ease, with long-haul travel expected to rebound by 11%. The report forecasts annual growth of around 6% through 2032, when international arrivals could reach 2.2 billion.

Chris Carter-Chapman, event director at WTM London, said the report provides data and analysis on travel trends across more than 185 countries, as well as key tourism flows.

Dave Goodger, managing director for EMEA at Tourism Economics, said leisure travel continues to feature prominently in consumer spending priorities despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

“Travelers are adapting how and where they visit, for example, by spending selectively on the experiences that matter most to them or staying closer to home,” Goodger said.

He added that the industry remains on course for another record year in 2026 despite disruption from the conflict in the Middle East and rising living costs.