GCC retail sales set to rise $57.3 billion to $386.9 billion by 2030

Retail sales across the GCC are projected to rise by $57.3 billion between 2025 and 2030, driven by population growth, tourism, higher consumer spending and an expanding retail footprint, according to a new report by investment banking advisory firm Alpen Capital.

The firm forecasts regional retail sales will increase from $329.6 billion in 2025 to $386.9 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3 percent.

Food retail is expected to outpace non-food retail, with food sales forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.1 percent over the period, compared with 2.7 percent for non-food retail.

GCC retail space set to expand

The region could add around 4.6 million square meters of organized retail space between 2025 and 2030, assuming 80 percent of planned developments are completed.

That would bring the region’s total organized retail gross leasable area to around 27 million square meters, up from 22.8 million square meters in 2025.

However, the growth itself is not only about adding more physical stores. As competition for shoppers intensifies, developers, shopping mall landlords, and retail owners are placing greater emphasis on entertainment, dining, lifestyle, and other experience-led concepts designed to increase foot traffic and keep customers in stores longer.

Much of that expansion is expected to be concentrated around flagship malls and mixed-use destinations, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Physical retail continues to attract investment despite the expansion of e-commerce. New malls and retail destinations are increasingly being developed as part of larger mixed-use and master-planned communities.

Saudi Arabia remains GCC’s largest retail market

Saudi Arabia is expected to remain the region’s largest retail market, with sales forecast to reach $166.6 billion by 2030.

Retail sales in the Kingdom are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 3.2 percent between 2025 and 2030, supported by population growth, tourism and economic diversification.

The country’s pipeline of large-scale developments is also creating new opportunities for retailers, particularly through mixed-use destinations that combine shopping with dining, entertainment and leisure.

UAE retail sales forecast to grow fastest

The UAE is expected to record the fastest retail sales growth among GCC markets over the next five years.

Retail sales are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3.6 percent between 2025 and 2030, reaching $129.5 billion by the end of the period.

Population growth, tourism and rising consumer spending are supporting demand, while the UAE’s established shopping, hospitality and entertainment infrastructure continues to underpin the market.

Qatar and Kuwait are expected to record retail sales growth of 3.2 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, over the same period.

AI moves into the retail mainstream

Technology is also reshaping how retailers compete, with AI and advanced analytics increasingly being used to personalize recommendations, automate decision-making and improve operational efficiency.

Retailers are also turning stores into fulfillment hubs while expanding services such as buy online, pick up in store, same-day delivery and buy now, pay later.

“A competitive retail landscape is driving GCC operators to increasingly adopt AI and advanced analytics to enable personalized customer recommendations, automated decision-making and improvements in operational efficiency,” said Hameed Noor Mohamed, Managing Director of Alpen Capital (ME) Limited.

At the same time, more value-conscious consumer behavior is prompting retailers to invest in private-label products, promotional offers and digitally enabled platforms that combine convenience with competitive pricing.

“Looking ahead, operators are expected to pursue consolidation to streamline operations, adopt technology to enhance competitiveness and expand market share, and strengthen their product customization capabilities,” Noor Mohamed added.

That competition is likely to keep pressure on prices as international brands and e-commerce platforms compete for shoppers. More promotions and discounts could help drive sales, but may also squeeze retailers’ margins.

For consumers, that competition is likely to mean more choice, more promotions and increasingly personalized shopping experiences, as retailers look for new ways to win and retain customers.